El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Dynamics, Complexity, Predictability, and Future Changes

Sea surface temperature anomalies during El Niño and La Niña episodes. Credit: [Climate.gov](https://www.climate.gov/media/14414) — Sea surface temperature anomalies during El Niño and La Niña episodes. Credit: Climate.gov

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent driver of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability on Earth, significantly influencing global weather & climate patterns, ecosystems, and economic systems. Reliable predictions and future projections are cruial for preparing and mitigating its widespread effects. We use hierarchies of climate modeling together with observational analyses to reveal ENSO multiscale dynamics and sources of ENSO predictability. We built the conceptual extended nonlinear Recharge Oscillator (XRO) model to both predict ENSO events and quantify the various sources of ENSO predictability from climate mode interactions.

ENSO predictability

Sen Zhao, Fei-Fei Jin, Malte F. Stuecker, Philip R. Thompson, Jong-Seong Kug, Mike J. McPhaden, Mark A. Cane, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Wenju Cai (2024). Explainable El Niño predictability from climate mode interactions. Nature, 630(8018), 891–898.

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ENSO dynamics

Sen Zhao, Fei-Fei Jin, Xiaoyu Long, Mark A. Cane (2021). On the Breakdown of ENSO’s Relationship with Thermocline Depth in the Central‐Equatorial Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(9), e2020GL092335.

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Sen Zhao, Fei-Fei Jin, Malte F. Stuecker (2021). Understanding Lead Times of Warm Water Volumes to ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(19), e2021GL094366.

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Sen Zhao, Christina Karamperidou (2022). Competing Effects of Eastern and Central‐Western Pacific Winds in the Evolution of the 2017 Extreme Coastal El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(15), e2022GL098859.

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Han-Ching Chen, Fei-Fei Jin, Sen Zhao, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Shaocheng Xie (2021). ENSO Dynamics in the E3SM-1-0, CESM2, and GFDL-CM4 Climate Models. Journal of Climate, 34 (23), 9365-9384.

DOI

Xiaofan Li, Zeng‐Zhen Hu, Sen Zhao, Ruiqiang Ding, Banglin Zhang (2022). On the asymmetry of the tropical Pacific thermocline fluctuation associated with ENSO recharge and discharge. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(11), e2022GL099242.

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Fei-Fei Jin, Han-Ching Chen, Sen Zhao, Michiya Hayashi, Christina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Ruihuang Xie, Licheng Geng (2020). Simple ENSO Models. Geophysical Monograph Series: El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate. eds: A. Santoso, W. Cai, and M. J. McPhaden, 119-151.

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Inter-basin Interactions

Dynamics and Predictability

Walker circulation under the normal (upper) and El Niño (bottom) conditions. Credit: [Revision World](https://revisionworld.com/a2-level-level-revision/geography/synoptic-assessment-0/drought-and-its-teleconnection-enso) — Walker circulation under the normal (upper) and El Niño (bottom) conditions. Credit: Revision World

Pantropical SST predictability

Sen Zhao, Fei-Fei Jin, Malte F. Stuecker, Philip R. Thompson, Jong-Seong Kug, Mike J. McPhaden, Mark A. Cane, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Wenju Cai (2024). Explainable El Niño predictability from climate mode interactions. Nature, 630(8018), 891–898.

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Understanding the interactions of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a practical application to improve IOD predictability.

Sen Zhao, Malte F. Stuecker, Fei-Fei Jin, Juan Feng, Hong-Li Ren, Wenjun Zhang, Jianping Li (2020). Improved Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole using a Stochastic-Dynamical Model compared to the North American Multi-model Ensemble Forecast. Weather and Forecasting, 35(2):379-399.

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Sen Zhao, Fei-Fei Jin, Malte F. Stuecker (2019). Improved Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using Seasonally Modulated ENSO Forcing Forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(16):9980-9990.

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Malte F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Fei-Fei Jin, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Wenjun Zhang, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Esther Widiasih, Sen Zhao (2017). Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole Phase Relationships. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(5):2481–2492.

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Atmospheric Teleconnections

Dynamics and Impacts

Stationary Rossby wave propagation theory on a non-uniform flow

Rossby wave propagation is responsible for the large-scale atmospheric teleconnections. However, the classic theory predicts that stationary Rossby waves cannot propagate across the easterlies, which hinder people to understand many observed and simulated interhemispheric teleconnections. We refined the theory of Rossby wave propagation by adding consideration of background meridional flow. The new theory suggests that local meridional background flow acts as a one-way wave tunnel for the cross-equatorial propagation of Rossby waves. It is valuable to understand many observed interhemispheric teleconnections and tropical–extratropical interactions.

Sen Zhao, Jianping Li, Yanjie Li (2015). Dynamics of an Interhemispheric Teleconnection across the Critical Latitude through a Southerly Duct during Boreal Winter. Journal of Climate, 28(19):7437-7456.

Cite DOI

Yanjie Li, Jianping Li, Fei Fei Jin, Sen Zhao (2015). Interhemispheric Propagation of Stationary Rossby Waves in a Horizontally Nonuniform Background Flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 72(8):3233-3256.

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