XRO ENSO Forecasts
ENSO forecasts
XRO model
The XRO is an eXtended nonlinear Recharge Oscillator model for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other modes of variability in the global oceans (Zhao et al. 2024). It builds on the legacies of the Hasselmann stochastic climate model capturing upper ocean memory in sea surface temperature (SST) variability (Hasselmann, 1976), and the recharge oscillator model for the oscillatory core dynamics of ENSO (Jin, 1997). It constitutes a parsimonious representation of the climate system in a reduced variable and parameter space that still captures the essential dynamics of interconnected global climate variability. For the detailed formulation of XRO model, please refer to our paper (Zhao et al., 2024).
Data source
Here we make a 18-month forecast with the trained XRO model using the climate mode indices for 1982-2022 and initial conditions beginning in January 2023. The XRO state vectors of ENSO and other climate modes
- SST anomaly indices derived from the monthly OISST v2 SST data provided by NOAA, PSL at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html
- Warm water volume index of equatorial Pacific heat content provided by NOAA, PMEL at https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/upper-ocean-heat-content-and-enso
We conduct 1000-member stochastic forecasts with the same initial conditions for each month but different stochastic forcings, See Supplementary Fig. 16 in Zhao et al. (2024) for how we make 1000-member stochastic forecasts in details.
References
- Zhao, S., Jin, F.-F., Stuecker, M. F., Thompson, P. R., Kug, J.-S., McPhaden, M. J., et al. (2024). Explainable El Niño predictability from climate mode interactions. Nature, 630(8018), 891–898. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07534-6
- Jin, F.-F. (1997). An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: conceptual model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 54, 811–829. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<0811:aeorpf>2.0.co;2
- Hasselmann, K. (1976). Stochastic climate models Part I. Theory. Tellus, 28(6), 473–485. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00696.x
Disclaimer:
The XRO forecast is provided for informational and academic research purposes and is not intended for production use. This website and its affiliated entities expressly disclaim any liability for decisions or actions based on the reliance on this information. Furthermore, no responsibility is assumed for any consequential, special, or similar damages resulting from such reliance.